HOPE

William Shawcross hasn’t given up yet. His latest piece includes this analysis from Duncan Anderson, head of war studies at Sandhurst. Worth quoting, even though I have a horrible feeling I’m grasping at straws:

Like everyone who loves Iraq, he is worried about it. But he is not panicked. He points out that it took the British army four years to get its tactics right in Malaya, then another seven years to defeat the insurgency there. Similarly, in Oman there was a learning curve in the 1970s.

"The US Army and the marines have transformed themselves in the last two years," he says. "They set up their own counter-insurgency school and all officers down to platoon level pass through it. It is a far more effective force than it was in 2003."

The Iraqi Army has improved as well. "In January 2005 there were only four battalions which were any good," Anderson says. "Now we can think in terms of several divisions that can be relied upon. Many of them are very highly motivated: they know what their enemies will do to them if they win."

Last week the Iraqi Army was able to take back from insurgents the southern town of Amarra. Anderson thinks the most effective way of improving the army faster would be to post many more experienced foreign military advisers with different units. This could be done by the redeployment of US officers already in Iraq.